与非线性区域预测方法结合的月延伸预报试验Ⅰ:纬向平均环流的预报   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈伯民  纪立人  杨培才  张道民 《气象学报》2004,62(1):1-10

为克服数值模式普遍存在的纬向平均环流预报误差,文中在36a NCEP/NCAR再分析高度场资料的基础上,应用非线性时空序列预测理论的局域近似法构建了200,300,500和700hPa4个等压面上的月尺度逐候纬向平均高度距平场非线性动力学区域预报模型.对1996年12个月所做的预报试验表明,无论是南、北半球中高纬度地区还是低纬度地区,非线性模型的候纬向平均高度预报结果均优于持续性预报、气候预报和T42L9模式动力预报.用非线性结果对T42L9模式月平均高度场预报结果进行订正,则使该谱模式系统性预报误差显著减少,也大大减少了其预报高度场的均方根误差,相应地,高度场距平相关评分也有一定程度的提高,表明纬向平均高度的非线性预报比谱模式动力预报包含了更多的有用信息.  相似文献   

面向Internet的农业气象产量动态预报   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

王石立  马玉平  刘文泉  林日暖  庄立伟 《气象》2004,30(4):42-45

针对信息时代Internet网上用户对产量预报动态查询的需求 ,探讨了面向Inter net的农业气象产量预报的解决方案。试验结果表明 ,由于作物生长发育和产量形成是一个光、温、水、土条件长期、综合作用 ,生物量长期累积的过程 ,因此利用积分回归方法 ,考虑全生育期光、温、水气象因子的综合影响 ,根据已出现的天气实况 ,在假定后期天气条件正常的情况下 ,有可能预测出未来产量的趋势。随着天气实况的逐一出现 ,后期的预报结果可望逐步接近实际值。统计检验和试报结果误差均在允许范围内。  相似文献   

Stress Changes Modelled for the Sequence of Strong Earthquakes in the South Iceland Seismic Zone Since 1706   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Frank?RothEmail author 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(7):1305-1327

The South Iceland seismic zone is, roughly speaking, situated between two sections of the mid-Atlantic ridge, i.e., the Reykjanes Ridge southwest of Iceland and the Eastern Volcanic Zone on the island. It is a transform zone, where earthquakes are expected to occur on E-W-trending left-lateral shear faults, equivalent to conjugate, N-S-oriented right-lateral, rupture planes. In fact, earthquakes take place on en-échelon N-S-oriented faults, which is indicated by the distribution of main shock intensities, aftershocks as well as by surface fault traces. The stress field continuously generated in the fault zone by opening of the adjacent ridges is computed and superimposed on the stress field changes induced by a series of 13 earthquakes (M 6) between 1706 and 2000. The level of the pre-seismic stress field is analysed as well as the size of the area under high stress. Finally, the post-seismic stress field of June 2000 is analysed, to see where high stresses might have accumulated. The modelling indicates that the rupture planes located on separated parallel N-S-striking zones are dense enough to lead to an area-wide stress release by the series of events. The obtained pre-seismic stress level for most events is high and stable with the exception of situations when several strong shocks occur over a time span of several days, i.e., display typical main shock-aftershock patterns. The size of areas under high stress aside from of the rupture plane, i.e., where no event occurs at the specific time, is of medium to small size.  相似文献   

月际地震趋势的数值预测法   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

黎令仪  刘德富  康春丽  韩延本 《地震学报》2004,26(5):529-532

考虑到目前地震月趋势以模糊用语进行预测的缺陷,本文提出采用数值预测法能更好地适应社会需求. 这种方法是基于地震有自律现象,通过建立非线性的数学模型予以实现的. 模型试验结果表明,我国大陆地震活动存在有7~8个月左右的循环结构,逐月比较预测与实况的震级误差平均低于0.2级,因而该方法比经验性预报更适宜社会的实际利用.   相似文献   

Prediction of permafrost distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the next 50 and 100 years   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

NAN Zhuotong  LI Shuxun & CHENG Guodong State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering  Cold  Arid Regions Environmental  Engineering Research Institute  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Lanzhou  China Correspondence should be addressed to Nan Zhuotong 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(6):797-804

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)has the highestand largest permafrost coverage in the low-middlelatitudes all over the world.With the progress ofChina’s Western Development,human activities areincreasing significantly on the QTP.For instance,theQinghai-Tibet Railway project started in June2001iscurrently under construction,but permafrost problemwill be one of the critical factors for the engineeringconstruction.Frost heave and permafrost settlementmay destroy engineering construction[1,2]…  相似文献   

An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

YANG Yuanqin & WANG Jizhi . National Meteorological Center  Beijing  China  . Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences  Beijing  China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(3):429-440

Typhoon disaster is one of the most influentialnatural disasters. The strong storm surge of Bangla-desh cyclone, which happened in November 1970,resulted in 300000 deaths. Asia and the western Pa-cific can be regarded as an area where is affected mostseverely by the disasters of tropical storms[1]. Themost important thing is to improve the accuracy oftyphoon tracks prediction internationally. Lande-sea,C.[2] pointed out that for a successful forecast oftropic cyclone (TC) tracks, it is not …  相似文献   

青海五龙沟地区1:5万遥感信息找矿勘查与靶区预测研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

高香香  邹林  高光明  杨自安  张普斌 《矿产与地质》2005,19(4):418-421

在青海五龙沟地区开展15万遥感信息找矿勘查与靶区预测研究,是以矿化蚀变的遥感异常提取为主线,结合成矿源场、成矿位场遥感信息的解译,通过遥感与地质、矿产、化探等多源信息的空间集成和综合分析,进行15万遥感岩石地层-构造-蚀变岩填编图与遥感找矿预测,优选出了13处新的找矿靶区.经有关地勘单位野外实地检查,取得了很好的应用效果,并证明了该方法的有效性.  相似文献   

河南卢氏—栾川地区铅锌矿成矿多样性分析及成矿预测     

王长明  邓军  张寿庭  燕长海 《地质通报》2005,(Z1)

河南省卢氏-栾川地区位于华北陆块南缘与秦岭造山带的衔接部位,是中国重要的钼、钨、铅、锌多金属成矿区。通过控矿地质条件与成矿环境多样性分析,将研究区铅锌矿划分为3种成因类型:岩浆热液交代型铅锌矿床、MVT型铅锌矿床和SEDEX型铅锌矿床。在此基础上,利用“成矿专属性”和“成矿多样性”相结合的找矿思路,对矿区不同类型矿床成矿进行远景评价,指出具有良好的找矿前景。  相似文献   

Diagnostic monitoring of a changing environment: an alternative UK perspective     

Hardman-Mountford NJ  Allen JI  Frost MT  Hawkins SJ  Kendall MA  Mieszkowska N  Richardson KA  Somerfield PJ 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(12):1463-1471

Adaptive management of the marine environment requires an understanding of the complex interactions within it. Establishing levels of natural variability within and between marine ecosystems is a necessary prerequisite to this process and requires a monitoring programme which takes account of the issues of time, space and scale. In this paper, we argue that an ecosystem approach to managing the marine environment should take direct account of climate change indicators at a regional level if it is to cope with the unprecedented change expected as a result of human impacts on the earth climate system. We discuss the purpose of environmental monitoring and the importance of maintaining long-term time series. Recommendations are made on the use of these data in conjunction with modern extrapolation and integration tools (e.g. ecosystem models, remote sensing) to provide a diagnostic approach to the management of marine ecosystems, based on adaptive indicators and dynamic baselines.  相似文献   

NMR Measurements in Carbonate Rocks: Problems and an Approach to a Solution   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hildegard?WestphalEmail author  Iris?Surholt  Christian?Kiesl  Holger F. ?Thern  Thomas?Kruspe 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(3):549-570

Carbonate rocks are well known for their complex petrophysical behavior where, in contrast to siliciclastic rocks, different parameters, including porosity and permeability, usually are not directly related. This behavior is the result of thorough reorganization of porosity during diagenesis, and it turns prediction of reservoir quality of carbonate rocks into a challenge. The study presented here deals with the problem of utilizing NMR techniques in prediction of petrophysical properties in carbonates.We employ a visual porosity classification as a priori knowledge for better interpreting NMR data for prediction purposes. This allows for choice of suitable T₂ cutoff values to differentiate movable from bound fluids adapted for the specific carbonate rock, thus resulting in better interpretation of NMR data. The approach of using a genetic pore type classification for adapting the conventional method for T₂ cutoff determination, which originally was developed for siliciclastic rocks, is promising. Similarly, for permeability determination on the basis of NMR measurements, the classification of carbonate rocks based on porosity types also shows potential. The approach implemented here has the promise to provide a basis of standardized interpretation of NMR data from carbonate rocks.Acknowledgment We are grateful to Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, for permission to publish the results of this work. This study was part of I.S.s Masters Thesis at Hannover University that was carried out in collaboration with Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, Germany. We appreciate comments of an anonymous referee and PAGEOPH editor Brian J. Mitchell.  相似文献